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Working paper No. 002

Scoring the future

Authors: HyperPrior ResearchLondon
Research: 01Environments and gradersWhere the reward is written down, and where it gets gamed.
Programme: P-03Out-of-SampleAgents and evaluation against the future
Status: In preparation

Version: In preparation
Date: In preparation
Confidence: In preparation
Revisit: In preparation

Abstract

The only benchmark that cannot leak is one that has not resolved yet. We set out a protocol for scoring forecasts committed before their outcomes exist, including when the forecaster can move the outcome.

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Cite

HYPERPRIOR RESEARCH LTDNo. 002

HyperPrior Research. Scoring the future. Working paper No. 002, in preparation, 2026. London. https://hyperprior.net/papers/scoring-the-future/

@techreport{hyperprior002,
  author      = {{HyperPrior Research}},
  title       = {Scoring the future},
  type        = {Working paper},
  number      = {002},
  institution = {HyperPrior Research},
  address     = {London},
  year        = {2026},
  note        = {In preparation},
  url         = {https://hyperprior.net/papers/scoring-the-future/}
}